Cry "wolf!" once to often - and people will stop paying attention. In predicting weather events, meteorologists have always faced that fundamental problem: A prediction may come true in one place but not in another, even though the two places are not that far from each other.
This is very important in the case of weather warnings - like for freezing rain, which results in slippery sidewalks; heavy rain, with its danger of flooding; as well as for hurricanes, blizzards or thunderstorms.
With such weather, citizens, firefighters and emergency crews must be able to react. Citizens should avoid dangerous areas such as forests and parks, while floodplains and riverbanks must be evacuated - or people should receive the advice to simply better stay at home.
When the predicted storm is milder than expected
If a predicted severe weather situation doesn't materialize, this can even be embarrassing to those who issued the warning or took precautions.
The annual Düsseldorf carnival parade for 2016 was called off after meteorologists predicted heavy storms including strong winds. Afterward, debate erupted among citizens, organizers and politicians as to whether calling the parade off was a bit too much. In the end there were strong winds, but the storm was not very dangerous.
Generally, the German weather warning system is fairly well-suited to deal with such situations. The German national meteorological service (Deutscher Wetterdienst - DWD) has a warning system in place, which informs the public via the internet, SMS or smart phone app.
In comparison with other European countries, Germany's warning grid is highly detailed.
